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“People will lose money faster on exchanges for lots of reasons,” Marantelli says. “It inherently increases spend, volatility, lots of things. And you’re playing against a sharper audience than you’re playing against at the DraftKings sportsbook.”

He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.

Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

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Various tier one and two retail operators, such as William Hill and Betfred, have scaled back and closed hundreds of shops between them this year.

Non-remote betting was reported at £2.4 billion (down 3.3%) with non-remote casinos at £933.9 million (up 0.4%) and non-remote bingo at £703.8 million (up 8.2%).

Gaming machines in arcades recorded £800.1 million in GGY (up 10.7%), mainly across adult gaming centres (£761.4 million, +11.3%). Gaming machines overall contributed £2.7 billion to GGY, reflecting a 4.3% uplift. 

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The American Gaming Association (AGA) believes many federally regulated prediction markets have transformed into illegal gambling and sports betting outfits, siphoning revenue from the legal, taxed gaming industry. Prediction markets, the trade group argues, threaten jobs and tax revenue, as do other forms of illegal gambling like skill games, sweepstakes casinos, and offshore sportsbooks.

Illegal gambling operators are thriving at the expense of American consumers, siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments, and undercutting the efforts of the legal market,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “It’s time for a national crackdown on the pervasive illegal market that is draining state coffers and putting people at risk.”

The AGA estimates that Americans wager $673.6 billion with illegal and unregulated gambling operators a year, with unregulated online slots and table games accounting for the lion’s share of the unlawful bets at $466.2 billion.