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On the surface, Week 1 appeared exceptionally bettor-friendly, as Casino.org reported.
According to LSR, NFL teams combined for 791 points—tying 2012 for the highest opening-week total ever—while setting Week 1 records for total touchdowns (93), offensive touchdowns (90), and rushing touchdowns (37). Favorites went 12-4 straight up, while the Over hit in nine of 16 games (9-6-1).
At Caesars Sportsbook, seven of eight early afternoon favorites won outright, and six games went Over the total—many hitting the mark by halftime.
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The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.
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